5/13/10 - Once again, our in house handicapper, Tom Cosgrove,  takes a stab at the Preakness.  In reality it is more than a stab.  Tome did pick Super Saver to win the Derby and correctly identified the difference – Calvin Borel.  Read on to get a fresh perspective on the Preakness.  Then, get ready to…   ahem…  “Get Your Preak ON!!!!!”

2010 Preakness by Tom Cosgrove

This year’s Preakness won’t have the hoopla of the 2009 edition, which ended with a jockey, instead of a horse having a shot at the triple crown.  After leaving surprise Derby winner Mine That Bird for Rachel Alexandra, Calvin Borel guided the filly to victory.  Borel has a chance to capture the first two legs of the triple crown again this year, though this time he’ll be on the same horse. 

And while it won’t have the “which horse do I ride” or “boys v. girl” drama of last year, as long as you have the Kentucky Derby winner in the starting gate, it’s a compelling storyline, even if though this year’s edition is not as intriguing from a handicapper’s perspective. 

What’s most interesting in handicapping the Preakness each year is figuring out the newcomers.  Most years the top finishers in the Derby find their way to Pimlico along with a few others, but this year’s contingent isn’t particularly notable.  Only Paddy O’Prado (3rd), Lookin at Lucky  (6th), Dublin (7th) and Jackson Bend (12th) are joining Derby champ Super Saver in making the trip from Louisville to Baltimore.  The most glaring absence is Ice Box, the Derby’s fast closing second place finisher, who may reappear at the Belmont in June. 

The rest of the Preakness field is usually filled with horses which weren’t quite ready by Derby time and opted for another prep race, or horses that were on the Derby trail, but didn’t get in because their career earnings were too low.

In terms of alternate prep races, there are two entrants from the Derby Trial, a Grade 3 run the week before the Derby, though unfortunately Hurricane Ike, the winner, will miss the Preakness due to injury.  The other angle I like to play is giving a look to the winner of the Federico Tesio Stakes, which is run at Pimlico the day of the Derby.  That’s now only a $70K race, which may be a reason its winner Bank the Eight isn’t in the Preakness field. 

So that leaves five others, who had been running the Derby preps, but didn’t run in the Derby, but I’ll take a quick look at the whole field.   

1- Aikenite – Not sure the second place finish at the Derby Trial is enough to warrant serious consideration, but this Pletcher entry earned a respectable 96 Beyer in that race, which was his seventh straight start in graded stakes company.  I might take a chance depending on the odds.

2-  Schoolyard Dreams – Our local sports columnist likes this horse which had seconds in two Grade 3  preps before finishing fourth in the Wood Memorial last time out.  I like others better. 

3-         Pleasant Prince – The other entrant from the Derby Trial probably looked like a Derby contender after narrowly losing to Ice Box in the Florida Derby.  After a seventh at the Blue Grass Pleasant Prince ended up in the Derby Trial instead of the Derby where his distant third place finish doesn’t inspire.  It might be a stretch, but you could do crazier things than bet on a horse that only lost to Ice Box by a nose. 

4-  Northern Giant – His washout in the Arkansas Derby last time out and the fact it took six tries to break his maiden don’t inspire much confidence.  If you’re looking for a reason to back this Lukas trained entry, he does boast a third in the Grade 2 Risen Star and a second in the Grade 2 Lanes End earlier this spring.  

5-  Yawanna Twist – A lightly raced Dutrow entry, Yawanna Twist could be worth a shot as he has two firsts and two seconds in four lifetime starts, including seconds in the Gotham and Illinois Derby his last two tries.  Might be worth a deuce. 

6-  Jackson Bend – The Derby was the first time this horse didn’t finish first or second.  Who knows what to make of the 12th place finish in the Derby, but obviously Zito thinks enough of him to give him another shot, and he should have a decent price. 

7-  Lookin at Lucky – Baffert’s Derby favorite had a tough trip from the one hole at Churchill, and the ML has him as the second choice, so apparently the oddsmaker is giving him a pass on that one.  Can’t be ignored, but I’ll pass given the likely low odds. 

8-  Super Saver – I liked him for the Derby and like him even better now.  He’ll get bet down to nothing, but that’s the price of having a live triple crown hopeful.    

9-  Caracortado – Here’s a horse who was four for four as a two-year old, and began his three year old campaign with a win at the Grade 2 RB Lewis on the poly at Santa Anita.  He’s trailed off a bit since with a third in the San Felipe and a fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, but clearly it’s a horse with talent.  Not sure how his resume on the poly translates to Pimlico, so I’ll pass. 

10- Paddy O’Prado – Desormeaux got some heat for his ride in the Derby from the armchair jockey brigade, which should be ignored.  PO’P’s impressive third place finish will make him a fashionable choice. 

11- First Dude – Nothing really stands out for this horse.  You could try to build a case on his third place finish in the Blue Grass after finishing 5th in the Florida Derby, but I won’t. 

12- Dublin – Lukas brings Dublin back after an under-the-radar 7th in the Derby.  He had hit the board in his three previous starts in graded stakes preps at Oaklawn, so he’s still worth a look and should carry a decent price. 

I went to the Preakness five times in the early 90s when I lived in the DC-area, so I have some good memories of it, and hope to have a few more after Saturday.  

I’m going to approach this race as more of a spectator than a handicapper.  I’ll take Super Saver again, and box him in an exacta with Aikenite.  May toss a deuce at Yawanna Twist if the odds are high enough.  Go Super Saver!  

Derby 2010: Favorites, Longshots, and Everything in Between

By Tom Cosgrove, special to mcmahonbloodstock.com

In the 2000 edition of the Kentucky Derby, a highly touted three-year old with an
exotic name, won impressively at the Wood Memorial and went on to win the Derby as a
solid favorite. It looked like the same storyline was unfolding for the 2010 Derby
– until Sunday.

Scratched this past weekend, Eskendereya will not repeat the feat of Fusaichi
Pegasus, the 2000 Wood Memorial and Kentucky Derby winner. Until Saturday, this
year’s Derby may be known as much for the horse that isn’t starting as the 20 in the
gate – until about 6:35 pm, when one of them gets a blanket of roses draped over its
saddle and the talk of the elusive triple crown begins.

In the years since Fu Peg’s victory, the winners have been a mixture of favorites,
long shots and everything in between. But in the last seven years the winner has
been either a favorite or near favorite (Smarty Jones (2004), Barbaro (near
favorite, 2006), Street Sense (2007) and Big Brown (2008)) or a complete bomber like
Giacomo (2005) and Mine That Bird (2009). And while Funny Cide (2003) wasn’t a
true longshot, his win was a shock to many, and since he’s a New York-bred and I
know the connections ;-), I was looking for an excuse to mention him.

So I’m going to handicap this year’s Derby looking for an angle on all 20, with the
idea that just about any one of them could be wearing that blanket of roses on
Saturday.

The field
Lookin At Lucky – One would think it’s a tough post for the ML favorite, but as many
winners have come from the one post (12) as any other. Still a lot (as in
everything) will depend on the trip. You can throw out the third place in the Santa
Anita Derby as no winner has prepped in that race since the polytrack was installed,
and instead refer back to the 6 of 7 lifetime prior with his only loss coming in the
form of a second in the BC Juvenile. Baffert has a good one here.

Ice Box – It’s rare the Florida Derby winner gets a ML as high as 10-1, so there
could be some value here. Then again, Zito trained Ice Box entered that race
lightly regarded, but he’s clearly moving in the right direction.

Noble’s Promise – One of the top juveniles last year, he began his three year old
campaign in the Rebel Stakes with a solid second to Lookin at Lucky. The last time
out at Oaklawn in the Arkansas Derby he managed only a 5th, but you can chalk that
up to a rough trip – worth a look.

Super Saver – Pletcher entry Super Saver comes off a close second in the Arkansas
Derby, and won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill last November, but the
most compelling reason to play him may be the magician on his back, Calvin Borel.

Line of David – I had to go back and check to make sure I hadn’t copied it down
wrong as to why the Arkansas Derby winner has ML odds of 30-1. Granted he was a
maiden only two races before, but it’s not like they gave him a head start at
Oaklawn. I’d be surprised if his odds stay that high, but should still provide some
value.

Stately Victor – Just like Line of David, Mike Bettaglia isn’t showing any love to
the Blue Grass Stakes winner with a ML of 30-1, only slightly lower than SV’s odds
before he won at Keeneland . Like the Santa Anita Derby, the Blue Grass doesn’t
seem to prep many winners, but Street Sense parlayed a second place finish there to
a Derby win three years ago. Can’t count out a horse that won a Grade I his last
time out.

American Lion – Those who have read my triple crown picks before know I have a soft
spot for the Illinois Derby winner ever since War Emblem followed up his win there
with a Derby victory in 2002. His winning Beyer figure of 98 is about as good as
any horse in the field and with a ML of 30-1, it’s another reason the Derby is one
of the most fun races to bet.

Dean’s Kitten – So the Grade 2 Lane’s End back in March at Turfway isn’t the
pre-eminent prep race, but Dean’s Kitten won it. It’s a better resume than last
year’s winner Mine that Bird whose last prep was a fourth place finish in the
Sunland Derby. With a 50-1 ML, this may be a longshot with a shot.

Make Music for Me – So this one’s a little (OK, a lot) tougher to like coming off a
6th in the Blue Grass with only one win in eight lifetime tries. That W came on the
turf at Santa Anita two back posting a 93 Beyer. So there’s that, or maybe you’re
in a band or just really like the number nine.

Paddy O’Prado – Coming off a second in the Blue Grass and a win at the Grade 3
Palm Beach Stakes, Paddy O’Prado also boasts a top notch pilot in Kent Desormeaux
and will most certainly have double digit odds come post time.

Devil May Care – While Devil May Care comes in with all the hype any filly brings to
a triple crown race, she also brings the top Beyer in field, earned in the Bonnie
Miss Stakes her last time out. And she’ll be carrying 5 fewer pounds than the boys
– of his five entries, she may be Pletcher’s best shot in Eskendereya’s absence.

Conveyance – So why shouldn’t the Sunland Derby produce the Kentucky Derby winner
two years in a row? Conveyance placed second there last time out, but has won his
other four career starts including wins in the Southwest and San Rafael early in the
prep season. Baffert says that while stablemate Lookin at Lucky has gotten most of
the attention, Conveyance shouldn’t be overlooked.

Jackson Bend – JB had a solid prep season and is coming off three straight seconds
in the Holy Bull, Fountain of Youth, and most recently in the Wood Memorial, where
he won first place among horses not named Eskendereya. He doesn’t have the Big E
to worry about this time and Nick Zito seems to have flown under the radar with this
horse, which has never finished worse than second in nine lifetime starts, so watch
out.

Mission Impazible – One of the most lightly raced of this year’s starters with only
five career starts, this Pletcher trained entry didn’t have a Derby starter resume,
but fixed that with a win in the Louisiana Derby. Here again, the winner of a major
Derby prep comes in with hefty ML odds of 20-1, and should still have a good price
come post time.

Discreetly Mine – DM was the favorite in the Louisana Derby when he was upset by his
stablemate Mission Impazible, ultimately finishing fourth. He’d been the favorite
thanks to a solid effort in winning the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds in his
previous start. Given his name, this could be the sleeper horse among the Pletcher
entries.

Awesome Act – AA literally threw a shoe in his last start in the Wood Memorial and
still managed to finish third, and had won the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct
prior to that in his first start on dirt. He could be a good one to keep in the mix
if the weather’s bad Saturday given his solid work in the slop on Tuesday.

Dublin – This Lukas entry is battle tested making his seventh straight start in
graded stakes company and he hit the board in all three of his Derby preps at
Oaklawn including a close third in the Arkansas Derby. Seems like it’s been a while
since we’ve heard much from D. Wayne but with a good trip and a little luck of the
Irish, perhaps it’s his time to return to the triple crown spotlight.

Backtalk – A distant third place finish in the Illinois Derby his last time out and
you can see why his ML odds are 50-1. But this horse had two graded stake wins as
a two year old, and is 2 for 2 at Churchill Downs. Only one of two horses to have a
win on the track. He’s also 2 for 2 on wet tracks should that become a factor.
Maybe not enough firepower with a career best 87 Beyer, but very interesting.

Homeboykris – This 50-1 longshot is tougher to make a case for but here goes. While
his three year old campaign has been unimpressive, he showed promise with a win as a
juvenile in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes, and trainer Richard Dutrow has done it
before with Big Brown. Then again, with Dutrow quoted as saying “We’d be on Cloud 9
if we could pick up a check,” Homeboykris may be a good choice if you’re a) a
Yankees or Dodgers fan (he’s owned by Joe Torre), b) Johnny Unitas was your Dad’s
favorite quarterback or c) you like Steely Dan (hey nineteen . . . ).

Sidney’s Candy – A tough slot for the second choice, but Big Brown won from the 20th
post just two years ago. Though he’s never run off the poly, and I’ve made known my
bias against those prepping at Santa Anita, hard to ignore his undefeated prep
season peeling off wins in the San Vincente, San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby.
Owner, along with Devil May Care, of the top Beyer last time out (100) and owned by
pounds-b-gon queen Jenny Craig, the oddly named Sidney’s Candy should be in the mix
if he gets a good trip.

The bet(s)
Having tried to make the case for every horse in the field, it’s tough to narrow my
choices, but here goes. I don’t bet that often, so I’m looking for value plays
(bordering on longshots), not necessarily the best bet. My choices may change
depending on track conditions and odds, but here’s where I’m leaning.

Most years I’ll try to fashion together some exotics. This year it seems like there
are a bunch of interesting horses that should go off at decent odds, so I’m going to
pick three to take across the board along with a “what the heck” triple box with
those three plus Lookin at Lucky, which if I hit might require I fill out tax forms,
one of the few times you don’t mind doing that.

4 - Super Saver
5- Line of David
7- American Lion

I’ll be tempted to take the $2 flyer win bet on 8 – Dean’s Kitten and 18- Backtalk
depending on odds. Of course if I stay at this long enough, I could get all 20 back
on the list, so time to close and enjoy the races. Good luck!

We sell about a dozen horses this year in the two year old sales.  It's an exciting atmosphere.  The two year old sale is more like the NFL combines than any other thoroughbred sale.  The horses sprint and generally speaking the fastest horse, breezes the BEST.  It is a pretty simple equation on the surface.

Enter in pedigree, surface, maturity, rider error, trainer, vet reports and a host of other variables and you quickly see why speed is not the only factor. 

I was thinking of the graded stakes horses we have bought and their prices and it makes for an interesting study of the two year old market.

OBS Feb Grad R Loyal Man was a $80,000 yearling buy and sold for $125,000 at the OBS Sale when it was held at Calder.  Real nice horse, breezed well, vetted well and I think sold cheaply because his pedigree was light.  He was a stakes winner and Grade 3 placed at 2.

Fasig Miami graded grads include our first pinhook Buy The Sport.  She's an example of pedigree power.  An 82,000 yearling resold for $155,000, Buy the Sport was a NY Bred purchased from the same sale we sold Funny Cide at.  She was profitable and she sold well, nearly doubling her purchase price.  She was a good buy for her owners although she was not blazing fast at the two year old sale.  She had a nice proven female side and a solid sire.   She finished Grade 1 placed and is already a stakes producer.

Thunderous Mood is an example of pedigree power also.  By Storm Cat and out of an Alydar mare he cost 400k as a yearling and was one of the best bred horses in the Miami Sale, but he was not the fastest.  He brought $575k there and raced successfully in France placing in a G3.

Marcavelly also came from the Miami sale.  We had purchased him at Keeneland for 210,000 and sold him after he rna'ed at the Miami sale for 275k.  He vetted well, breezed well and had a nice pedigree, but he was not the fastest and it hurt his sales price.  He was a stakes winner at two and won two Grade 3's.  Not bad...

OBS March grad Delicate Dynamite is one of my favorites.  We purchased her for 25,000 from the annual draft of Smiser West - one of KY's breeding legends.  When she breezed slowly, all bets were off and i sold her privately for 30,000 to client Todd Creek.  She was big sound and immature.  She was a stakes winner at 2, Gr 3 placed and earned over $360k.  WOW!!

Lord Carmen a 30k yearling purchase got no attention at OBS March but we did sell him later in the year on the private market.  His pedigree and breeze must have been insufficient to buyers... on the track he won multiple stakes, placed in a Grade 3 turf race and has earned over 300k and races to this day.  What a fun horse he is!

Keeneland April grad Grace Anatomy breezed well enough and was very popular with her strong pedigree, but vetting slowed her sale price down significantly.  We bought her for 150k and sold her for 195k.  There was a lot more interest than that for her but unfortunately, some of the buyers backed off and missed this filly who placed in Keeneland's G1 Alcibiades.

The bottom line is don't miss horses who breeze well, but a tick slower than the top group.  Nearly all of these horses breezed sufficiently fast, but not fast enough for the market.  There ia always serious value in the two year old sale market, you just have to look for it.

Make sure and give our 2010 crop a hard look, we'll try and make it obvious by getting a few bullets, but don't forget to look if we miss by a tick.